The NFL is a week-to-week league, so the odds on the next Super Bowl winner can swing a lot over a six-month season.
This futures market stays open all year. With almost four full weeks of football played, a few early trends are starting to show. Below are the current odds and three value bets on who will end up lifting the Lombardi Trophy.
Super Bowl Odds at Kalshi
| Team | Kalshi Odds | American Odds |
|---|---|---|
| Rams | 12% | +733 |
| Bills | 12% | +733 |
| 49ers | 10% | +900 |
| Ravens | 9% | +1011 |
| Chiefs | 9% | +1011 |
| Seahawks | 7% | +1329 |
| Jaguars | 6% | +1567 |
| Bears | 5% | +1900 |
| Bengals | 4% | +2400 |
| Cowboys | 4% | +2400 |
Odds and trading volume are as of publication and move constantly.
Best Bets on the Super Bowl 61 Winner
At the time of writing, the Rams and Bills are co-favourites at the top of Kalshi's Super Bowl board, and the market has seen $159,506,636 in trading volume. Here are three bets at different price points that offer better value than the favourites.
Favourite – San Francisco 49ers (+900)
San Francisco's 24-14 win over Denver kept the 49ers among the NFL's unbeaten teams, alongside the Chiefs and Vikings. Quarterback Brock Purdy is climbing in Kalshi's NFL MVP market after a strong start, and he and Kirk Cousins share the league lead with 11 touchdown passes.
The 49ers' odds are longer than those of the Rams and Bills, yet over a small four-game sample they look like the most complete team in the league. They also beat the Rams 27-7 back in Week 1.
The offence is loaded: Purdy's main targets are Christian McCaffrey, Mike Evans, Deebo Samuel and George Kittle. On defence, San Francisco ranks seventh overall, giving up 308.8 total yards per game and just six touchdowns so far.
Bet: $100 → Total payout: $1,000
Sleeper – Jacksonville Jaguars (+1567)
Jacksonville leads the AFC South at 3-1 after a statement win in Cincinnati, and the team is building on last season's playoff trip.
Quarterback Trevor Lawrence, the former Clemson star, is entering his prime. He has 843 passing yards and eight touchdowns, steering an offence that scores 26 points a game.
Defence is where the Jaguars really stand out. They have allowed only 53 points, or 13.3 per game, the second-fewest in the league, and they concede just 74.2 rushing yards per game, which is also second best.
Bet: $100 → Total payout: $1,667
Longer Shot – Dallas Cowboys (+2400)
Dallas fans need no reminder that it has been three decades since the Cowboys won a Super Bowl. With Dak Prescott at quarterback, they have the weapons to score, ranking second in the NFL at 30.5 points per game.
The Cowboys came back to beat Houston 34-30, powered by CeeDee Lamb (17 catches, 189 receiving yards and a touchdown) and Javonte Williams (62 rushing yards and three touchdowns).
The catch is the other side of the ball. Dallas ranks 29th in scoring defence, allowing 28 points per game, and that has to improve if this bet is going to cash.
Bet: $100 → Total payout: $2,500
