This week brought plenty of news and, as usual, much of it was focused on prediction markets. Every Friday, we’ll give you a rundown of the most important news from the week that’s worth catching up on.
Kalshi Loses Major Ninth Circuit Battle Against California Tribes
Perhaps the largest story of the week is the Ninth Circuit ruling against Kalshi and in favor of California tribes.
The Blue Lake Rancheria, Chicken Ranch Rancheria of Me-Wuk Indians, and Picayune Rancheria of Chukchansi Indians filed a lawsuit against Kalshi last year. However, the tribes’ request for a preliminary injunction in November was denied after the court ruled that Kalshi’s sports markets fall under federal CFTC jurisdiction./p>
The tribes appealed that ruling, and on Wednesday, the Ninth Circuit overturned the district court’s decision, voting 3-0 in their favor.
The court held that the tribes were likely to succeed on their Indian Gaming Regulatory Act claims, that the sports contracts constituted Class III gaming when entered from tribal lands, and that the Commodity Exchange Act did not prevent the tribes from pursuing their IGRA remedy.
Prediction Markets Record Strong Performance During NFL Opening Weekend
Despite the Ninth Circuit battle, prediction markets recorded a win this week with at least $5.83 billion in trading volume on the first weekend of the NFL season, according to Aldrin Research.
When combining college football and the NFL, Kalshi alone generated roughly $4.89 billion across the opening weekend. Sports and combo/parlay-style trading made up the majority of this volume.
This strong performance comes on the heels of a request from the NFL, MLB, MLS, NBA, and NHL, along with their players’ associations, for state regulators to permanently ban bettors who threaten or harass athletes, coaches, officials, and/or their families.
For now, it appears that prediction markets have been overlooked in this regard, which raises the question of whether banned bettors could simply continue trading through a federally regulated prediction market.
Caesars-Fertitta Deal Faces FTC Scrutiny
In non-prediction market news, Tilman Fertitta’s proposed acquisition of Caesars Entertainment faced new scrutiny as the FTC issued a second request for information this week.
In addition, two Icahn-appointed Caesars directors resigned, and Icahn waived his right to replace them. This boardroom shake-up adds more heat to a deal already under close watch.
Plenty to Keep an Eye On
Elsewhere in the industry, lawmakers also moved forward with another attempt to restore the full federal gambling loss deduction, while Genius Sports weighed in on the future of prediction markets and launched a new tool tracking activity across the sector. Texas lawmakers also turned their attention to prediction markets as the legal pressure on Kalshi continued to spread beyond California.
